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Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Can Capitalism bring Inclusive growth?

In the recently concluded Millennium Development Goals of UN, inclusive growth has been put at the forefront. The yearly data on GINI ratio that measures the inequality specific to countries further highlight the growing inequality in world. The most famous book of twenty first century “The Capital” by Thomas PIketty also highlight this inequality (lack of inclusive growth) and how it has grown since last three centuries. The problem is clear, to achieve inclusive growth; and the method to achieve that are many from capitalism model of development, socialist model of development or mixed economy. But what’s the best solution? Before answering this question, we should rather look into these model of development.

Capitalism involves private ownership of the factors of production with prices and allocation of resources is determined on basis of supply and demand, to be precise by the market. Capitalism further includes different models of development like laissez faire model, state capitalism or welfare capitalism. Socialism involves state’s control over the factors of production and price fixation. Erstwhile USSR was a good example. And mixed model is in between the previous two, with both private and public involved into economic activities. India is currently following this model of development.

Here, we are limiting the case to capitalism. Capitalism in its true sense means laissez faire model or free market economy. Here, decisions are taken as per market forces and private individuals are the owners of all decision making activities. It works on the principle of Survival of the fittest. The most competitive firm survives and thus it gives rise to innovations, development and discoveries. But at the same time, since decisions are taken on principles of demand and supply of market; needs of people who are unable to pay are not served. The poor are marginalized in such systems and it heightens inequality. The low GINI index of USA represents the poor inclusivity in American growth story. India on other hand has better GINI index although with one-tenth size of US economy and triple of its population.

But at the same time, innovation brought in by Laissez faire capitalism can directs towards inclusive growth. The birth of Sachet packaging is one such innovation of market economy serving needs of the bottom of pyramid. This enabled poor to use best products and improve their quality of living with access to better resources. But the catch here is “ability to pay”. If one is unable to pay, capitalist class doesn’t have the motivation to innovate. And that’s why majority of innovation is into luxurious products. But such growth is unsustainable and dangerous. As Edward Abbey writes
"Growth just for the sake of growth is the ideology of cancer cell"

Further, the surplus arises out of economic activities in capitalist system accrued to capitalists only. And very little benefits trickle down to worker class. This unequal growth has also been highlighted in Alternate theory of Distribution by Ricardo; where surplus accrues to capitalists and landowners.
In the past, mercantilism was one of the previous forms of capitalism, which gave rise to colonialism. And it divided the world into two halves with haves and have-nots. The third world of today comprising of Africa and South Asia is a result of greed of this capitalism. Thus, even on past experiences it has never proved to be inclusive.

However, other models of capitalism like state capitalism and welfare capitalism which involves state intervention in form of regulation do give a way out for inclusive growth. Here in this model, the excess of capitalism gets regulated and the poor are being supported by state machinery. Long gestation development activities for masses which are not undertaken by private players are rather provided by state. The experience of Nordic countries regarding availing education and health to all from surpluses of capitalist economy is one such positive example.

Also, many of welfare economists like Joseph Stiglitz directs responsibility of state in a market economy towards ensuring rights and growth of poor and destitute. And the excess of capitalism like monopoly practices or cartelization which aims towards maximizing profits at the cost of welfare of consumers need to be checked through regulators. SEBI or TRAI or CCI (Competition Commission of India) are some very good examples which ensure welfare of masses against excess of market economy.

Capitalism in theory do has potential to bring inclusive growth with its innovation, best use of resources and accompanied with welfare state. But the baseline of capitalism i.e. profit motive when combined with human greed in real world, all the diversion starts. And similar is the case with other model of development like socialism. The unsustainable inclusive growth of USSR is one such example. Although, in beginning it promises good result but in absence of competition (ensured by capitalism) people had become complacent and innovation died down.


Inclusive growth requires best use of available resources with equal distribution of surplus benefits. Capitalism do provide this opportunity, but in a world dominated by human decision making, realism always overtakes theory. And reality is human emotions, greed and jealousy which need to be curtailed through regulations and legal standards. In absence, no model can guarantee inclusive growth and neither will capitalism.

Monday, February 1, 2016

Will 2016 be the next Recession?

George Soros, a major hedge fund investor who once towed down Bank of England has predicted over next slowdown in 2016 (published in The Economist). And the likely indicators are Chinese slowdown, negative interest rates in Europe and Japan, low commodity prices. But, at the same time there seems to be some bright spots like US and India with decent growth numbers. But is that so? When India is performing below its potential growth rate (8% on basis of incremental capital output ratio) or US showing low consumption demand (recently concluded Christmas month), Can we count on these bright spots? Or when China is putting best effort to shift to consumption driven economy rather than export driven, Can’t we wrong in putting it into dark spot? Let’s start from last century debacle and learning (1930 Great Depression)

The world has followed the learning of 1930s Great Depression crisis in the post 2008 Great Recession through Keynesian approach aided with monetarists (linked with fiscal expansionism and monetary easing). After Great Depression of 1930, New Deal of FDR (Roosevelt) focused on public expenditure adding jobs and increased buying power of people in USA. It was a major event in bringing American economy out of recession. After 2008 recession, following same lines of boosting demand to recover economy has been followed. And this has been tried through monetary easing, buying toxic assets from market by Fed and giving easy money in hands of people (Keynesian approach includes targeting demand rather than supply in an economy). And this approach is based on assumption that public expenditure will crowd in private investment and private production and economy start rolling.

In 1930s it was direct government involvement or fiscal route while in post 2008 it was through monetary route. This easy money has been offloaded to developing nations like India, China and ASEAN in search for better returns. And since financial markets are dominated by few investment giants (in words of Piketty, another case of rising inequality), this has not been a difficult task. As a result, crowd in effect has not been that substantial as expected. And recent low consumption data and poor output data in US points to same (US still not recovered). What was successful in 1930s and subsequently can't be repeated again in this financially connected global economy.

In aftermath of 2008, there appeared many other dark spots in various other parts of world. The Europe has still not recovered of Greece crisis of 2010-11 owing to poor coordination, negotiation and understanding. And recent Refugee crisis of 2015 has imposed existential threat to Euro area with ban on free movement of labour. Also, low commodity prices specially of crude oil has further limit the development expenditure of oil rich nations (like OPEC and Russia). This has negatively impacted the infrastructure firms to its maximum (like that of L&T, with major orders in Gulf countries). This very low (<$30) price of oil is although good for importing nations like India and China; but on global level this is hurting. In fact, crude oil price <$40 and >$80 always hurts the global economy. Too low a price, hamper global expenditure while too high a price, a drain of resources.

Amidst all this, China which was earlier the major bright spot of world economy (when India was suffering with scams and policy paralysis) has also cooled down. With global demand declining for Chinese exports (US and Europe distress) and production shifting to consuming nations (thanks to 3D printing technology alike), Chinese economy is shifting its gear towards consumption driven. And change of economy fundamentals is time taking and rough. If not handled soundly, China can become the trigger of another slowdown.

The only bright spot available are India and Africa, but they are too small to boost the global economy. They are always in the shadow of political instability or policy paralysis.

Taking account of all the recent events, data and economic health of nations; the world seems to be at the brink of another recession. And so is any normal economy, which runs on a knife edge equilibrium of trusts and faith between suppliers and consumers. If that trust and faith are being restored by political class of world, there will be instead a growth story. And that faith can be restored through easy landing of Chinese economy without hampering other nation’s growth (through avoiding deliberate devaluation), making monetary decisions on global cues and not just domestic, global mutual solution to refugee crisis and economic interests over political ones (US-Russia and Iran-Saudi Arabia enmity).